The hard data.

A Marshall Plan for Climate Change (Part II — Stellar transition to electric cars)

In 2017 there were only 1 945 780 electric cars worldwide.

In 2018 that number jumped to 3 290 800 (a 69% increase).

As of early 2019, the number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million, according to ZSW (Center for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg). That’s another 64% increase, compared to the same period of the previous year.

Still, not barely enough to make any significance in a world of 1.2 billion cars where EVs account for less than 0.5 %.

Transportation accounts for nearly 30% of all CO2 emissions in the US and the EU, out of which roughly 70% comes from road transportation.

If we are going to fight climate change, we all have to change our cars first.

EV incentives are critical to the adoption rate of the general population. Data shows that countries with the best incentives also see the highest adoption rate of EVs. Moreover, rich countries are where we also see the highest adoption rates. That’s simply because they can afford more generous incentives. Among those countries are Norway & Switzerland. Also, the state of California in the US.

So what about the rest of the world? When do you think Mexico & South America, Eastern Europe & Russia, Asia & Africa will see this kind of adoption rate of EVs? After all, these places are home to most of the world’s population, and also where most of the population growth will occur in the coming decades. Unfortunately, that’s also where the majority of people barely meet ends.

Obviously, to switch to electric, you need to be able to afford it. In a world ruled by capitalism and neoliberalism, it’s not hard to imagine that we’ll need a humongous amount of money to make the change.

Anyway, let’s get back to our main topic and look at some of the existing tools, that governments apply to economic sectors of significant importance.

Once such sector and a great example is agriculture, where governments directly intervene and heavily subsidize. Even the WTO is powerless when it comes to supporting agriculture.

A bad year with little or zero yields could easily dismay even the most determined farmers and discourage them from planting crops again. Thanks to government subsidies and insurance coverage schemes, these people are still in business. Losing a critical mass of farmers could quickly lead down the road of food shortages and famine. These are dangerous grounds for our politicians. If there is one thing politicians are most afraid of — it is famine. Throughout history, hunger has the longest track-record of raising the masses and overthrowing rulers and governments around the world.

Okay, so if politicians are so cautious to prevent the masses from rising, in fear of famine, then why are they so short-sighted to the consequences of climate change?

Is it because of our ancient brains rely on outdated psychology, incapable of distinguishing the risk of imminent dangers from the possibility of an even greater distant threat?

Probably. Scientists are ringing the alarm that we have time until 2050 to reduce our carbon footprint. For some people, that exceeds their life span. For politicians and CEOs, where the typical mandate is 2–4 years, it’s way beyond their scope of planning and responsibility.

Does it mean that until 2050 we should not worry about climate infused events? Or at least not significant disasters.

The time we have until 2050 is commonly misconceived as a grace period, which simply isn’t true. This illusion of a grace period is only fueling our tendency to procrastinate the necessary action, making it even harder to reverse the consequences of our irresponsibility in the future.

Maybe we need to see more devastating events, affecting us, close friends and relatives, boosting our courage to demand a more decisive climate change policy from politicians and corporations.

History repeats itself. It looks like we have to reach a certain extent of suffering before we acknowledge the real danger of our reckless way of consumption. One way or another, we will realize the necessity to introduce better incentives for EVs and better feed-in tariffs for renewables, among other economic measures.

But how are we going to see a massive transformation in the car market if most of the population in the world still can’t afford to buy a new car?

I think the only way is by introducing ZERO INTEREST long-term loans for each family that already owns a car to switch to electric. Also temporarily limiting the ownership of cars to 1 vehicle per family. That’s until we see a steady decline in the global CO2 emissions and the manufacturing process of EVs catches up with the demand.

One questions immediately arise in our minds, and that is the possibility to produce so many EVs to make the transition fast enough.

Factories can be built within a year. Even large automobile factories should not take much time to be established, once there is a demand for produce.

If governments act as an intermediary, to take orders directly from the population by lending ZERO INTEREST loans, they can place orders to car manufacturers, fixing a quota. When there is a fixed quota, the number and the capacity of newly build factories could be better determined, leaving no hesitation during BOARD meetings.

Since some EV makers are way ahead of others, in terms of electric motor efficiency and battery technology, we should see co-up between current rivals. One company will focus on producing the electric motor, while others will supply the batteries and the chassis. It will be a win-win game with unimaginable market possibilities. That should keep every car manufacturer in the world busy for the next 50 years or more. Busy factories will keep the job market satiated right at the moment when we are about to lose millions of jobs due to advancing automation, autonomous vehicles, and AI.

This accelerated transition to EVs will also fuel a massive infrastructure transformation in terms of building charging stations, which also leads to more job openings.

We could make this gigantic transformation within a decade and provide our children and grandchildren with the hope of a better future. A stepping stone for them to thrive and not become extinct.

read part I — How to close all coal power plants within a decade

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